google agencies - Economic, demographic, social and environmental sustainability have to be considered by the Middle East's tourism players when formulating long-term industry policy, according to a pioneering study carried out by Global Futures and Foresight (GFF), an international strategic futures think-tank.
The 'Vision to 2020' report, covering 13 countries, is the first of three in-depth studies on the Middle East's travel and tourism industry's future prospects, sponsored by Reed Travel Exhibitions (RTE), organiser of Arabian Travel Market, the region's leading travel and tourism event, opening in Dubai tomorrow.
It is a first for the region and outlines the main challenges and opportunities ahead. These include the need to identify market segments interested in its luxury attractions, flexibility so that demand doesn't lag behind supply, possible effects from a climate disaster or disease outbreak and even the impact of water availability. Achieving collaboration with other destinations and creating a hassle-free traveller experience, should also be considered, according to the report.
"The region has the ambition, resources and commitment to turn vision into reality. The challenge is to ensure the long term viability of those strategies," said David Smith, GFF Joint Chief Executive and co-author of the pathfinder report.
He said the region has already created original developments like the Palm Islands and The Pearl-Qatar, but the international character of many others could place them in any city, from Stockholm or San Francisco to Dubai. "The Middle East now faces the challenge to drive the next wave of innovation that emphasizes, celebrates and promotes the region's cultures, heritage and tradition."
'Vision to 2020', covering Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Jordan Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, the UAE and Yemen, aimed at identifying the drivers and barriers of the tourism industry and developing scenarios on possible impacts. It will be presented at a series of seminars during the four-day Arabian Travel Market.
"We supported this ground-breaking study as we want to back the tourism industry's effort to tackle the Middle East's explosive growth. The aim is to give it the tools to formulate strategies that will address the opportunities, while minimizing risks," said Alastair Gornall, Chief Executive, Reed Exhibitions – the world's leading organiser of trade and consumer events and parent company of RTE.
A second report, including comprehensive industry data, will be revealed at the World Travel Market in London this November. The final study – 'A Response from the Region' - containing detailed findings from regional industry leaders - will be presented at Arabian Travel Market 2008.
"Current estimates suggest that over the next 20 years, upwards of US $3 trillion is going directly into leisure and tourism and into the supporting infrastructure. Through projects announced to date, by 2020 the region will add airport capacity for 300 million extra passengers, build over 200 new hotels, add 100,000 additional rooms, grow visitor numbers to over 150 million and increase the size of its aircraft fleet over 150 per cent by 2025," says Smith.
However, Gornall points out, "there is no one single certain future that we are moving towards and no one outcome", inviting other parties interested in the future of the Middle East's travel and tourism market to back this ground-breaking project.
The region's travel and tourism prospects will also be influenced by global political, economic, social, demographic, technological and environmental factors and trends, according to the 'Vision to 2020' blueprint.
An economic power shift is expected, that will open up new target markets for both inbound and outbound visitors and investors, while the growth and ageing of the global population will impact the level of disposable income. Rising wealth levels, particularly in Asia, means the Middle East's players will need to decide which sectors of the market they target, ranging from new airlines and hotels to leisure services.
Other key trends, also affecting the paths the Middle East tourism industry could take, include increasing demand for health tourism, sensitivity towards environment protection, an estimated creation of 1.5 million new jobs in the next decade, the amplified role of Information Communication Technology and aviation breakthroughs.
A matter of particular importance to the region highlighted in the study is security. It says a concerted effort will need to be made to address this issue as the Middle East suffers from a "collective identity" in a way that other regions don't.
As for competition, the report warns that a number of new travel alternatives will emerge, while the world economic map will look different by 2020, with countries such as Pakistan, Indonesia and Nigeria having the potential to be amongst the 20 largest by 2050.
Arabian Travel Market is held under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, and under the auspices of the Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing, Government of Dubai. The 14th edition of the event features over 2,600 exhibitors from 64 countries, including first-time participation from China, Croatia, Macau, Palestine, Peru, Ras Al Khaimah, Swaziland, Taiwan, and Zimbabwe.
About Global Futures and Foresight:
The aim of GFF is to harness the views of global experts to provide foresight to organizations so that they can be more successful and less exposed to risk by better understanding the opportunities and threats the future has in store for us. GFF is a global network of business, academic and future thinkers from across the world committed to helping business and government better prepare for the future. It does this through collaborative projects and through undertaking its own research, gathering thought leaders' views of the future and forming composite ideas of what our future could look like. Recent GFF publications include 'The Future of Small & Medium Sized Enterprises', and 'The future of China's Economy' published in February and March 2007 respectively.
For further information please visit the Global Futures and Foresight web site at www.thegff.com
Reed Exhibitions
is the world's leading organiser of exhibitions and conferences. Reed brings together over 90,000 suppliers and more than 5.5 million buyers from around the world every year generating billions of dollars in business. Today Reed events are held in 38 countries throughout the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia Pacific, and organised by 33 fully staffed offices.
Reed's portfolio of over 460 events serves 52 industry sectors, including:
aerospace and defense, building and construction, design, electronics, energy, oil and gas, entertainment, food and hospitality, gifts, healthcare, IT/telecoms, jewellery, manufacturing, marketing and business services, pharmaceuticals, property, publishing, sport and recreation, transport and logistics and travel.
Working closely with professional bodies, trade associations and government departments Reed ensures that each and every event is targeted and relevant to industry needs. As a result, many Reed events are market leaders in their field.
Reed Exhibitions is part of Reed Elsevier, a FTSE 100 company and world-leading publisher and information provider, with revenues in excess of £4.8 billion (US$ 8.4 billion) (2004).
Reed Travel Exhibitions
organises 17 events worldwide, including World Travel Market, Arabian Travel Market, C.I.S. Travel Market, EIBTM, British Travel Trade Fair, Asia Pacific Incentives & Meetings Expo (AIME), International Golf Travel Market, Top Resa, ICCA Exhibition, in association with the ICCA Congress, International Luxury Travel Market (ILTM), La Cumbre, City Break, China Incentive, Business Travel & Meetings Exhibition (CIBTM), Latin American & Caribbean Incentive & Meetings Exhibition (LACIME), Gulf Incentive Business Travel & Meetings (GIBTM) and Asia Luxury Travel Market (ALTM).
For further press information, please visit the Reed Travel Exhibitions' website on www.reedtravelexhibitions.com

Posted on 30 April 2007